Collect pieces for SSP 2024/ScenarioMIP

doc/index.rst

@@ -108,6 +108,7 @@ Commonly used classes may be imported directly from :mod:`message_ix_models`.
    project/nextgen-carbon
    project/ngfs
    project/prisma
+   project/scenariomip
    project/shape
    project/sparccle
    project/ssp

doc/material/whatsnew.rst

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+What's new
+**********
+
+Next release
+============
+
+SSP 3.0 development
+---------------
+
+By topic:
+
+.. contents::
+   :local:
+   :backlinks: none
+
+
+Non-model changes
+^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
+
+- the ``--datafile`` option for the the material-ix build command was removed since it is not used anymore.
+- a ``material-ix calibrate`` command has been added that can be used to run the MACRO calibration step in isolation.
+- values from model parameter data that have a year_act and year_vtg columns greater than the technology lifetime are dropped since they are inflating the model size unnecessarily.
+- a module :mod:`.model.material.share_constraints` for commodity share constraints was created, but is not fully used in the build yet.
+.. todo:: consider differentiating the constraints by SSP
+
+Demand
+""""""
+
+- the demand commodity ``level`` of methanol has been changed from ``final_material`` to ``demand``
+- an additional demand projection setting for aluminum, steel and cement has been introduced called "highest" which SSP5 scenarios are mapped to
+- the 2025 demands are fixed to the projected SSP2 values for each SSP
+- Aluminum base year demand has been updated based on IAI MFA output for 2020
+- Cement base year demand has been updated based on GlobBulk Consulting data for 2020
+- Steel base year demand has been updated based on worldsteel association data for 2020
+
+
+Post processing
+"""""""""""""""
+
+- the new industry reporter has been implemented :mod:`.model.material.report`, with mapping files in ``data/material/reporting``
+
+Model development
+^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
+
+.. _general-changes:
+
+General
+"""""""
+
+- the power sector module has been deactivated for the SSP builds
+- coal_i ``technology`` is share constrained in each region based on 2020 IEA statistics
+- the low temperature share constraint for other industry is updated to reflect explicit modelling of heavy industry
+
+.. todo:: compile low temperature literature and set up references
+
+- the .tools.cost module has been updated to run in "gdp" mode when called by the materials build
+- the .tools.cost module is called twice if ``--update_costs`` option is :any:`True` in ``material-ix build`` command to be able to get the correct cost projections for the non-MESSAGEix-Materials industry technologies (e.g ``coal_i``, ``sp_el_I`` etc.)
+- the following utility functions were added/updated in utils.py
+  - for mapping country names with `ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_3166-1_alpha-3>`_ codes with `pycountry <https://pypi.org/project/pycountry/>`_.
+
+  .. todo:: integrate in :mod:`.util.pycountry`
+
+  - adding a ``R12`` column with region values mapped based on a iso column of the same dataframe.
+  - the MACRO calibration excel input file updater is now also updating the ``demand_ref`` tab based on the given scenario ``demand`` parameter values.
+  - the MACRO calibration excel input file updater can be run in "extrapolation" mode or just take values from the scenario directly.
+
+
+Aluminum
+""""""""
+
+- 2025 ``demand`` SSP2 fixing as mentioned under :ref:`general-changes` changes.
+- the aluminum build reads SSP differentiated input data by reading from :file:`data/materials/aluminum/<SSPX>/aluminum_techno_economic.xlsx`
+- the historical capacity of smelters is calibrated until 2020 using the genisim dataset.
+- the historical activity of smelters is calibrated until 2020 using British Geological Survey data (Soderberg activity is calibrated assuming capacity shares computed from genisim dataset).
+- the historical activity of smelters is calibrated until 2020 using British Geological Survey data.
+- the historical activity of alumina refining is calibrated until 2020 using British Geological Survey data.
+- a trade model for alumina is introduced to be able to calibrate refining and smelting activity.
+- the process heat fuel consumption is calibrated using IAI data.
+- the regional alumina refining process heat intensities are calibrated using IAI data.
+
+Ammonia
+"""""""
+
+- 2025 ``demand`` SSP2 fixing as mentioned under :ref:`general-changes` changes.
+- a unit issue in the emission factor of ``biomass_NH3_ccs`` ``technology`` was fixed.
+
+Cement
+""""""
+
+- 2025 ``demand`` SSP2 fixing as mentioned under :ref:`general-changes` changes.
+- the cement build reads SSP differentiated input data by reading from :file:`data/materials/cement/<SSPX>/Global_cement_MESSAGE.xlsx`.
+- selected regional ``CEMENT`` values in :file:`residual_industry_2019.csv` were updated since they seemed wrong when comparing the data to the IEA cement report.
+.. todo:: TODO: paste link to IEA cement report here
+
+- the heat input for clinker CCS addons was lowered a lot.
+.. todo:: insert US NREL publication reference here
+
+Other industry
+""""""""""""""
+
+- 2025 ``demand`` SSP2 fixing as mentioned under :ref:`general-changes` changes.
+- the demands for the other industry are generated based on IEA historical data of the non-explicitly modelled sectors
+
+.. note:: the new demand model still sits in a private repository
+
+- the sector furnaces were missing non CO2 emission factors of their original MESSAGE counterpart (e.g ``coal_i``). Thus, they were copied from the originals and scaled with the input coefficients.
+- the furnaces are now writing into the ``IndThermDemLink`` relation, that is required for the MESSAGE-GAINS linkage.
+
+.. _methanol-changes:
+
+Methanol
+""""""""
+
+- the model structure was slightly updated to simplify and correct the carbon emission balance accounting
+
+  - the negative emission coefficients that represent the carbon stored in long lived products, were moved from ``meth_t_d`` technology to a new technology ``meth_ind_fs``.
+
+  - the carbon balance of ``MTO_petro`` was not correct. The process emissions and the ``input``/``output`` parameters were updated based on new literature.
+
+  .. todo:: compile literature list and summarize in a paragraph
+
+Petrochemicals
+""""""""""""""
+
+- together with the changes in :ref:`methanol-changes` the carbon accounting was improved:
+
+  - the negative emission coefficients that represent the carbon stored in long lived products, were moved from ``steam_cracker_petro`` ``technology`` to the ``production_HVC`` ``technology``.
+
+  - since carbon capture in plastics was moved upstream, ``ethanol_to_ethylene_petro`` ``technology`` needed a positive emission factor to represent the combusted chemicals part produced with ethylene feedstock from ethanol.
+
+Steel
+"""""
+
+- the steel build reads SSP differentiated input data by reading from :file:`data/materials/steel/<SSPX>/Global_steel_MESSAGE.xlsx`.
+- the maximum recycling relation was updated.
+- the minimum recycling relation was changed for SSP1.
+- the ``cokeoven_steel`` ``technology`` got its own bottom up CO2 emission accounting coefficient, to separate that from industrial emissions and move it to transformation emissions.
+- the cost changes done in the last PR (insert steel hydrogen PR link) were also transferred to the :mod:`tools.cost` module and custom reduction rates were assigned.

doc/project/scenariomip.rst

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+ScenarioMIP
+***********
+
+There is currently no dedicated code in :mod:`message_ix_models` associated with this project.
+This page is a place-holder.
+
+See also :doc:`/project/ssp`.
+
+Project information
+===================
+
+- Website: https://wcrp-cmip.org/mips/scenariomip/

doc/project/ssp.rst

@@ -7,6 +7,15 @@ For the 2023–2025 update process:
 
 - Project lead, lead modeler: :gh-user:`OFR-IIASA`
 
+.. warning::
+
+   The 2024 SSP update is **under development**.
+   For details, see:
+
+   - Tracking issue :issue:`234`.
+   - `Issues and PRs labeled 'p:SSP-2024' <https://github.com/iiasa/message-ix-models/issues?q=label%3Ap:SSP-2024>`_ on the :mod:`.message_ix_models` GitHub repository.
+
+See also :doc:`/project/scenariomip`.
 
 Structure
 =========